Our friends at Real Clear Politics appear to be panicking a bit.  Their spin on why things might not be tight as they appear?  The generic Congressional vote!  I kid you not.  Read for yourself:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/commentary.html

Oh yeah, and they claim right track/wrong track is down to -8% from double digits. Woo hoo!

Bush's presidency has always been faith-based; now it appears that his sympathetic polling analysts are relying on faith-based arguments as well.

...incorporating tonight's Gallup into their figures.  Last week, when it showed Bush up 5, they wore out their keyboards getting the number in the mix so fast.  Here it's been 2+ hours (10:20 Eastern), and no update.  Gee, I wonder why?

As an aside, anyone care to guess what their final 2004 prediction will be?  442-96 Bush again?  Will they even bother?

I'm guessing they're going to predict 315 for Bush.

Now that we have five tracking polls in the mix (welcome to the party Fox), we have a pretty good handle on where things stand.  

Here are Bush's numbers in the five tracking polls (all LVs) as of today:

ABC/WaPo: 49
Rasmussen: 48
Fox: 47
Zogby: 46
TIPP: 45

Simply put, Bush is averaging 47.  And in four of these five polls, Kerry has gained ground since yesterday.  Unless the incumbent rule goes out the window, Kerry wins this by 2-3 points.  I'd make the usual Osama disclaimer, but the story is fading already and will be old news by Monday.  Unless there's a serious surge in Bush's numbers over the next 1-2 days, the die appears to be cast.

Even in a sample size this small, a 17 point lead is actually outside the MoE. No wonder Republicans in Florida are frustrated--Chirs

Among people who have voted already, according to Quinnipiac:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x12942.xml?ReleaseID=488

Q has Bush up 3 among likelies, a tie among those registered, but has Kerry up a remarkable 56-39 among those who have already voted.  That's a truly astounding number, and flies in the face of conventional wisdom that says the Republicans do better in early voting.  

It's a small sample size (approximately 203 of the 1268 Q interviewed), so the number might be on the cusp of the MoE, but it could be evidence that Florida Democrats are motivated on an unprecedented level in this states.

And count me in as one of those who has voted early.

Bush has moved back up by two in Zogby, but more signficantly it went from 48-47 to 48-46, not 49-47. This isn't bad news, actually, since Kerry's strong Sunday rolled off, and he only lost a point.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6642521

...so check out Real Clear Politics' final assessment of the 2000 race:

http://tinyurl.com/5rjzd

Keep that in mind when you read the commentary on that site this weekend.

Update (Chris): Here's my favorite line from the piece:

Ha!